tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78430160470226155272024-03-17T03:13:19.519-05:00Disaster-wiseJim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.comBlogger310125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-82643299758915401612024-03-10T12:29:00.001-05:002024-03-10T12:29:20.277-05:00Mistake-Makers, Unite!<p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Another r</span><span style="font-family: arial;">eminder to join the</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><a href="https://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/search?q=mistake" style="font-family: arial;">Mistake-makers’ club</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> ! </span></span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Thinking back of mishaps in my family, it strikes me that the most dangerous place for us has been the countryside, rather than around the home or on the highway. Example: Missouri has its share of venomous snakes: both my mom and dad were bitten by copperheads. </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">As a kid visiting my grandparents' farm I foolishly wanted to see what the blades of the PTO-driven sickle bar mower felt like, and that sent me to the doctor to put back part of my fingertip. Here's what a rear-mounted sickle bar looks like: wicked!</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></p><p style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghg2SWpMo2ItJdtcLGHDGvk0AEFKVYE7A_YhBlHk4X72B1p811LMMMB6ZOseWPinrdmyAFrwhiErKPbMNOL2tTm57yvao0yIzdhLthXGQTaBaw8ciu33rfLOgRiqJVjZ7T7FEM0f4drXM2ZV29W5lrcbsQ1XxFZV72BE6_HhYfidZU1JWFLUBNcX8u3i8A/s524/sickle%20bar%20mower.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="393" data-original-width="524" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghg2SWpMo2ItJdtcLGHDGvk0AEFKVYE7A_YhBlHk4X72B1p811LMMMB6ZOseWPinrdmyAFrwhiErKPbMNOL2tTm57yvao0yIzdhLthXGQTaBaw8ciu33rfLOgRiqJVjZ7T7FEM0f4drXM2ZV29W5lrcbsQ1XxFZV72BE6_HhYfidZU1JWFLUBNcX8u3i8A/s320/sickle%20bar%20mower.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></p><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">As a teenager, m</span><span style="font-family: arial;">y middle brother was driving an old style nose-wheel tractor on our grandparents’ farm and ran over a hay bale with a rear wheel, which caused the tractor to tilt and balance on the front gear and one rear wheel for a heart-stopping moment. It landed upright and life went on. Here’s what that 1954 tractor looked like:</span></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-size: large;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPzUkQnQWhmyG81E7HCDfWt7l5UimkjXk-SxR4ImvRwtDqTfMyG-IJf66uj5FM05XzxKGfgpDiT41r8JYHR7kiQa0T6YwcJdLgGAhCOJvPafnblcKFtg5K3Y77ixkYCFDJ6d8RuYaQrY7bzVSjpLriqXVEVFfoIdyVdgf6xflXguxF9Hc3kKul_iNN1IN/s440/Farmall_H_tractor.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="324" data-original-width="440" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPPzUkQnQWhmyG81E7HCDfWt7l5UimkjXk-SxR4ImvRwtDqTfMyG-IJf66uj5FM05XzxKGfgpDiT41r8JYHR7kiQa0T6YwcJdLgGAhCOJvPafnblcKFtg5K3Y77ixkYCFDJ6d8RuYaQrY7bzVSjpLriqXVEVFfoIdyVdgf6xflXguxF9Hc3kKul_iNN1IN/s320/Farmall_H_tractor.jpg" width="320" /></a></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></span></p>My dad rolled our Case backhoe on a steep hill when one side of the rear brakes failed- the machine had a ROPS cab and that saved him. A backhoe is extremely useful around a farm but the big steel boom and dipper on the back gives it high center of gravity ... which makes it tippy.</span></span><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My most recent close call happened at my brothers’ farm. We had been piling up old logs and branches from the river for burning. The piles were about twelve feet high and sixty feet across. Starting the burn was no problem, with enough diesel fuel and a propane torch. Here's a brother at work. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"></span></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1ekO2nGjRkFvPL1dcHUvnCCbHDFgcy-lhygxPAy7blHLMjTF2tS0faWptGufFyHoOvaECAAvbCbL9X5HtcjpFVfK5d8WFe0r5ykcyVbv0rZ1oUbPYGjnTRhaSeq9R98mr1A988CWqrGjYu5psIoMbuZnSO1R6YdqBF0XeAY1cyyfhAn7_1-aObV3fNyy3/s1632/starting%20burn%20pile.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1224" data-original-width="1632" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi1ekO2nGjRkFvPL1dcHUvnCCbHDFgcy-lhygxPAy7blHLMjTF2tS0faWptGufFyHoOvaECAAvbCbL9X5HtcjpFVfK5d8WFe0r5ykcyVbv0rZ1oUbPYGjnTRhaSeq9R98mr1A988CWqrGjYu5psIoMbuZnSO1R6YdqBF0XeAY1cyyfhAn7_1-aObV3fNyy3/s320/starting%20burn%20pile.JPG" width="320" /></a></span></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: arial;">I volunteered to tend the pile from upwind, using our Cat track-mounted skid steer. </span></span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">I should have used our backhoe. A backhoe is a good-sized machine, </span><span style="font-family: arial;">so that puts the front-mounted bucket a good ten feet from the operator’s seat. </span></span><p></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 22px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A skid steer puts the operator much closer - these machines have a short wheelbase and a small bucket, so driving forward to shove unburned logs into the pile puts the operator face to face with the log heap. There’s no safety margin, given how close the bucket is to the operator. Here's the farm's second skid-steer to show its compact form factor. I'm balancing (not lifting) a glue-lam footbridge beam. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmk1xVw-MBEDPLVQuYs6Nz_YxWsqa8bOK_KsWlljIf9bu2HYo03dDMKgUYXR4A9nF9avE_4z5EtAtYnIooHOwl9YtqxZNVQoXNms1xvPsVYXrVrw1gLl6YYIh-t8OxTTEnwZ30h69WeVqgO4b7P_2MLM9E7fwAu3Wx3wieIP_BBojDa5xXafS3yV8rV8t6/s4032/IMG_8921.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="4032" data-original-width="3024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmk1xVw-MBEDPLVQuYs6Nz_YxWsqa8bOK_KsWlljIf9bu2HYo03dDMKgUYXR4A9nF9avE_4z5EtAtYnIooHOwl9YtqxZNVQoXNms1xvPsVYXrVrw1gLl6YYIh-t8OxTTEnwZ30h69WeVqgO4b7P_2MLM9E7fwAu3Wx3wieIP_BBojDa5xXafS3yV8rV8t6/s320/IMG_8921.jpg" width="240" /></a></span></div><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"><br /></span></span></p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Giving my attention to the top of the burn pile, I didn’t notice one four-inch diameter log pointed at me, the end of which was shaped like a blunt spear. As I drove forward, it punched through the windscreen and rammed the seat support, stopping a few inches from my right leg. A few inches over, and that would have not been an easy injury for a surgeon to solve … </span><p></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-align: left; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What almost happened that day is one more reason I'm not a believer in <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murphy%27s_law">Murphy's Law</a>. But I <i>am </i>a believer in learning from one's own mistakes. </span></span></p><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="s2"><br /></span></div>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-20862694815956659422024-02-17T13:39:00.000-06:002024-02-17T13:39:50.901-06:00AI-Assisted Folktale Creation<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Yesterday I was hunting for a folktale about a man who exhausted himself in trying to find treasure among a large quantity of non-treasure, in a limited time.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">An honest-to-goodness folktale is probably out there, but I couldn't find it. So of course I turned to Bing's ChatGPT tool and gave it my outline. The AI was pretty good at the medieval setting and some character traits, but weak on sticking to the plot. </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Its graphics cousin, DALL-E 3, did do a good job in picturing what I had in mind.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">After a <u>bunch </u>of editing, here's <i>A Tale </i></span><span style="font-family: arial;"><i>of Wood and Wealth</i></span><span style="font-family: arial;">:</span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">==</span></p><p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>"In
the heart of the Whispering Woods, by the mighty River Alterflow,
there lived a man named Thaddeus. Thaddeus was no hero, nor was he a
villain. He was simply a man who yearned for more—a life beyond the
mundane. Each day he worked in the woods for his living. Each night
he visited the village tavern, then stumbled homeward to his darkened
cottage, too restless to find sleep for hours. </i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>This
thought would not let him rest: Others in town, less worthy,
had found success. Why not he?</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>One
night, as he left the tavern, Thaddeus encountered a wizard named
Elowen. The wizard’s eyes held the secrets of long-ago
constellations, and his voice carried the weight of eons upon eons.</i></span></p><p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i><br /></i></span></p><p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i></i></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXaARyGQU6b2YAnN2BN3gkXs2FpasVF7sLMsPQR_iFJoagI0UbkLwlxukepgTFr6_8t_riiSOwEGM_rvicy8Au6_W5MMNGarLU1SvgHG7INuNg6OHc3im91Odc_vPgczA83lcXlxb_yz-V0HPKi_jTW66sY1m50NiO2k6bUO51zyTem6Q2Of88-JBNiuJE/s621/alterflow%20image%201b.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="621" data-original-width="621" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXaARyGQU6b2YAnN2BN3gkXs2FpasVF7sLMsPQR_iFJoagI0UbkLwlxukepgTFr6_8t_riiSOwEGM_rvicy8Au6_W5MMNGarLU1SvgHG7INuNg6OHc3im91Odc_vPgczA83lcXlxb_yz-V0HPKi_jTW66sY1m50NiO2k6bUO51zyTem6Q2Of88-JBNiuJE/s320/alterflow%20image%201b.jpg" width="320" /></a></i></span></div><p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; text-align: center; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>(Image by DALL-E3)</i></span></p><p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>“Thaddeus,”
Elowen whispered, “listen well. Your wish will be granted. Soon, on
a night when the moon is full and no clouds veil its face, you must
wait on the riverbank and keep close watch. On that night, a magical
night never to be repeated, the River Alterflow shall bear gifts
beyond your imagination. Baskets, many scores of them, will float by
this very village on its mighty stream. All baskets will look alike,
but a precious few of these baskets will hold gleaming coins. Others
will bear fine-crafted goblets of silver. And still another,
figurines of solid gold, crafted by a people long ago.</i></span></p><p></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>“<span><span style="font-weight: normal;">And
mark my words, there will just one basket, the most fabulous of all,
holding the emerald-studded diadem of a queen. A Queen out of
legend but real nonetheless. I knew this royal family well.</span></span></i></span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>“<span><span style="font-weight: normal;">But
harken to this: most of the baskets you will see in the river shall
hold naught but kindling wood, of the kind you split and sell for
firewood each day.”</span></span></i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Thaddeus’s
heart raced. The prospect of wealth danced before him like fireflies
on a summer eve. Soon he would be a man of stature in the town. No,
in the city!</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Then
a thought. Humbly, so as not to give offense, Thaddeus held out his hands.
“But the river is wide, master, and you tell of many baskets. How
will I know which of the baskets hold the riches, the fine things
that we agree I deserve?” His eyes were wide with anticipation but
also a little concern.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Elowen’s
gaze seemed to plunge into Thaddeus’s needy soul. “To know which
is wealth and which is wood, you must reach inside each basket,” he
said. “But remember this: any basket you fail to catch and search
shall drift downstream, lost forever.”</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>And
so, Thaddeus waited. He kept the wizard’s secret close, slipping
out of his cottage each night as the moon approached full. The
villagers came out to wonder why he paced the riverbank, squinting
into the darkness. They whispered of moon-cursed souls, but Thaddeus
paid them no mind. After two nights they left him to his vigil.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Then
the night finally arrived when the moon was completely full.
Muttering, Thaddeus waited for the high clouds to move away. Would
the sky never clear?</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>And
then the moon and stars were unleashed in glory. Now he saw many
baskets scattered across the silver-touched water, moving downstream
with the flow, their woven sides catching the light of stars and
moon.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Now!
There was no time to spare. Thaddeus leaped into the water, swimming
to the middle of the river, splashing from basket to basket, tearing
their tops open. The first ones revealed nothing but sticks of wood.
Finally he found a basket with a handful of silver coins and two gold
pieces. The wizard had not deceived him. Thaddeus pushed the
wonderful basket to shore and flung it to rest safely high on the
bank.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>His
desire flaring, Thaddeus vowed to pull in every valuable basket. The
challenge was as broad as the river itself. Hour after hour, Thaddeus
swam to shore, gasping for breath, to push another precious find onto
the muddy bank. Cold gnawed at his bones, yet Thaddeus could not
relent. The fear of missing a single treasure-laden basket haunted
him. Even as he shivered in the shallows, the river’s current
tugged at him, urging him back into its embrace.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>As
the sky was showing the first signs of dawn, Thaddeus found himself
clinging to one more floating basket. He had not yet found the
queen’s diadem of emeralds and diamonds. This must be the one! He
reached inside. But it was filled with nothing but scrap wood. He
looked left and right. This was the last of the baskets!</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Crying
out with rage, he dumped the worthless contents into the river and
tossed the basket away.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>Too
late, and too exhausted to swim any more, he realized that the humble
basket, when filled with light-floating wood, could have kept him
safe above the water however exhausted he might be.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>The
River Alterflow had become his prison, and the desire for treasure,
his shackles. The current bore his form away from his home,
downriver, leaving his little pile of wealth on the riverbank for the
villagers to find, and to think of their neighbor’s long nights of
vigil on the riverbank.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>To
this day, whenever the moon is full and the sky is clear, the
villagers gather by the river, their eyes scanning the water’s
surface, but they see nothing but the moon’s reflection.</i></span></p>
<p style="font-weight: normal; margin-bottom: 0in; orphans: 2; widows: 2;">
<span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><i>But
they remember Thaddeus—the man who reached for wealth and found
only the river’s cold embrace.</i></span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><br />
</p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-34671706934304065502024-01-31T17:58:00.000-06:002024-01-31T17:58:17.601-06:00Coping with Change in Documentary-World<p><span style="font-size: large;">This might be mildly amusing ... <span> </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">When in 2003 I started doing commentaries for History Channel and National Geographic Channel, I greatly enjoyed traveling to New York, Toronto, Boston, and LA, where I met up with a director and a crew handling sound, video, and logistics. Usually there was a "black car" for pickup at the airport. This from the <i>Inviting Disaster</i> series:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbeU11AddzrXvH6S-pxwYmIF9oL19yiaZdbXY9qvLiNJIpkZ6sd9c0gcMOq8diySgw_L4WeAhu5_xamqDyTeuW7Jd9y1hqypE5tiEbyAElw76Mli_IbMHSL3pmvNZnxPtelsaJz-R6xv2jpE7M7irG4cJevDRm6GrQH0GQ1qse3FAvTc8aghZOze98_mUO/s596/ID%20kursk%20photo.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="596" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbeU11AddzrXvH6S-pxwYmIF9oL19yiaZdbXY9qvLiNJIpkZ6sd9c0gcMOq8diySgw_L4WeAhu5_xamqDyTeuW7Jd9y1hqypE5tiEbyAElw76Mli_IbMHSL3pmvNZnxPtelsaJz-R6xv2jpE7M7irG4cJevDRm6GrQH0GQ1qse3FAvTc8aghZOze98_mUO/s320/ID%20kursk%20photo.PNG" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span>The fun continued through the History Channel's "Titanic at 100" show, my high point of seeing <a href="https://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/2012/04/every-wreck-has-four-corners.html">quality production in action</a>. With 3D magic the Lone Wolf crew converted a surplus hangar in Maine to a parking spot for the wrecked <i>Titanic</i>, if it were to be hauled up from the deeps. I'm the tiny person on the left. </span></span><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9PuNPnpbBcnI3DObauPX88nq1UkvuWaRB-Y8eLXApIL6IYiGQy_1940T8TZoKNTOeztbZJzaaEBj7MikvoInKmeRzUL3oaC_xXgh8WHCt9DFXEcEFmxyuPX_kNY1bL8KwS4qX98kkYqJKiRrshyphenhyphen8zws1Ceh41vmpjTTL2yEaCWruY69FdDVRlcTwZmF2Y/s665/t-110%20lift.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="665" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9PuNPnpbBcnI3DObauPX88nq1UkvuWaRB-Y8eLXApIL6IYiGQy_1940T8TZoKNTOeztbZJzaaEBj7MikvoInKmeRzUL3oaC_xXgh8WHCt9DFXEcEFmxyuPX_kNY1bL8KwS4qX98kkYqJKiRrshyphenhyphen8zws1Ceh41vmpjTTL2yEaCWruY69FdDVRlcTwZmF2Y/s320/t-110%20lift.PNG" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span>But now it's 2024 and documentary TV has lost a lot of sponsors. They've become earnestly budget-minded. </span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span>NHK, the Japanese equivalent of PBS, interviewed me on Zoom last year for their series "The Error," so I didn't get to travel any further than a table in my office. I don't have a wall-sized bookshelf of weighty volumes for the Expert's Background, so I settled for a wall and a poster. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">This photo is from my attempt to illustrate how frantic the situation was among technicians at Three Mile Island Unit 2, about 4:00 AM the day of the core meltdown. Not sure how well it translated to the Japanese audience ...</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzxhkKCAbiqMszU3RrcCrNLuOyPdAqyxiVg69wyjRxCScN7ZwF01nEhQcHaZIK5bohoH7Q87HEMX1674o1NdMB3sryAToHaJRxI5GGHuhKQgnlxPGXJ_2gAGGA4rj1VRaoSV27jczbBF-TY8QqPQOXPl7n-tIFjxdcK9u9Fw1EWPfcnfOIblrVKGk0OjR/s1133/nhk.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="670" data-original-width="1133" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWzxhkKCAbiqMszU3RrcCrNLuOyPdAqyxiVg69wyjRxCScN7ZwF01nEhQcHaZIK5bohoH7Q87HEMX1674o1NdMB3sryAToHaJRxI5GGHuhKQgnlxPGXJ_2gAGGA4rj1VRaoSV27jczbBF-TY8QqPQOXPl7n-tIFjxdcK9u9Fw1EWPfcnfOIblrVKGk0OjR/s320/nhk.jpg" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span><br /></span></span><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-72719588646276652452024-01-27T12:27:00.000-06:002024-01-27T12:27:26.441-06:00Luckier Still: More recollections of the writing life<p><span style="font-family: arial;">Continuing the <a href="https://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/2024/">previous post</a>, thinking of memorable times on the job and while researching a story:</span></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-family: arial;">During an expediter run on a construction job in 1980, I was assigned to make a stop at a dynamite wholesaler. I left with my VW Rabbit carrying a hundred pounds of DuPont Tovex, sporting a nifty triangular sign on my rear window: DANGER - HIGH EXPLOSIVES - KEEP BACK 300 FEET;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Accompanied an Austin police officer on a weekend-night shift. When he went into a house to check on a domestic dispute, he pointed to his shotgun and said "If there's trouble, feel free to use this;"</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Spent a morning with Moulton Taylor, inventor of the first practical flying car;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Had a lengthy talk with Harrison Ford about his time in helicopters; </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Climbed a tower crane during a construction-machinery trade show in Houston;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Jumped out of a helicopter during water-rescue practice with the LA County Fire Department;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Attended a reunion of Vietnam-era pilots who flew for the CIA front company, Air America;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">From Henry Kaiser's key man Clay Bedford, I heard how the shipyard at Richmond, California, built a 9.000-ton Liberty ship in less than five days;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Joined an afternoon of counterfeit-product raids with a private detective, sheriff deputies, and lawyers from the Disney Corp;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">While doing stonemasonry, learned that hitting a big slab of limestone with a sledgehammer makes a very loud "bong", lasting less time than striking a brass bell but about as loud (This requires the slab to be perched atop other rocks, so the vibrations aren't dampened);</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">"Rode the block" from the top of a Kansas oil rig, but declined the crew's invitation to join in heaving chain around a spinning drill pipe (this, after seeing one roughneck's mangled hand);</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Learned how to drag oak logs up a hillside with a choker cable and a winch;</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Spent many happy hours running a Case backhoe; </span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Rode with archaeologists in a Bell 206 helicopter doing fieldwork above the Arctic Circle; and</span></li><li><span style="font-family: arial;">Made a teeth-clenching drive up a New Mexico mountain hauling a trailer-mounted air compressor and drilling equipment:</span></li><li><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAys54Jt7EwcGRAvJY_GxSp0XON2kEJe0MbFrAb5GR2vTzwMEeboZC9MUG2Md5J418-Ix5RKsG1qwQsQQdit3gsfhg5sKFcfaQRmyJOHhnLGulLl528UGP4WrZLWTpsiOqUDFhEt4giu5hsKjsqS26zUh-P4IZQyggvWrzeevAjeaDA5HJAuddM0mydKDK/s640/little%20joe%20up%20NM%20mountain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="480" data-original-width="640" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhAys54Jt7EwcGRAvJY_GxSp0XON2kEJe0MbFrAb5GR2vTzwMEeboZC9MUG2Md5J418-Ix5RKsG1qwQsQQdit3gsfhg5sKFcfaQRmyJOHhnLGulLl528UGP4WrZLWTpsiOqUDFhEt4giu5hsKjsqS26zUh-P4IZQyggvWrzeevAjeaDA5HJAuddM0mydKDK/s320/little%20joe%20up%20NM%20mountain.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></li></ul><p></p><p><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p><br /></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-56153137434293577772024-01-06T11:34:00.001-06:002024-01-06T11:34:21.961-06:00Lucky, Lucky: The joys of feature writing <p><span style="font-size: large;">These are frustrating times for nonfiction writers, between AI competition and advertising's massive shift from print to search engines, streaming, and social media. Many magazines no longer have the budget for long-form articles requiring lots of research and travel. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Nonetheless! After 44 years of nonfiction writing, and well over a hundred articles and columns, I feel lucky to have started work before the Internet. With all the research and travel needed, it kept me in student-mode throughout. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">It's a time when the uber-wealthy are paying a lot for "experiential" events, like playing a bit part in a movie, hunting for treasure, or climbing Mount Everest along with a hundred others seeking that killer photo atop the summit. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Meanwhile, feature writers on a beat like mine are paid to go into places not otherwise open to the public, and report back. Over the years I was allowed into locations including these: </span></p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: large;">To the top of a Texas radio tower under construction;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Into a nitroglycerin factory in Missouri;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Into the flight deck of the B-2 Stealth bomber, followed by time in the simulator that the pilots use;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Ride on a training flight with the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, the Night Stalkers;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Drop into a deep tunnel under Brooklyn, to watch workers scale rock off the chamber's ceiling after a blast; </span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Ride on a helicopter doing maintenance on live, high-voltage transmission lines in Pennsylvania;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Accompany firefighters into a burning trailer;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Go into the Ohio State Prison to interview a safecracker;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Go into Jet Propulsion Lab at 2 am to watch a transmission to the Voyager 2 spacecraft; </span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Spend days aboard an offshore drilling ship, 120 miles off Louisiana;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">Go into Cheyenne Mountain's "battle cab" command center;</span></li><li><span style="font-size: large;">and to hear the terse command from my guide in the wreckage of the World Trade Center's Customs House: "If I say it's time to get out, just follow me!" (And good advice it was - a section we had visited collapsed a day later)</span></li></ul><p></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-57097771139453053872022-12-03T10:11:00.000-06:002022-12-03T10:11:39.248-06:00OpenAI's Chatbot on Eisenstein's "Battleship Potemkin"<p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p><div style="border: 1px solid rgb(217, 217, 227); margin-bottom: 0.2in; padding: 0.02in; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">I'm a fan of this classic silent <a href="https://www.tcm.com/tcmdb/title/327274/the-battleship-potemkin/#overview" target="_blank">movie</a>, and wondered what the computer banks behind OpenAI might say about it. My prompt to the <a href="https://chat.openai.com/chat" target="_blank">ChatbotGPT</a>: "Analyze the significance of the motion picture <i>Battleship
Potemkin</i> to Russians under the Putin regime"</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large; margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1130" data-original-width="800" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4Xg31smeGAE3cRfVF-Z6sNlTxxwqsN3xmWYeG_YqLFtRBAdpBHLpQIEMKywdjhPBFlBcIcOpF-L_k7mZyJdwanZ6LzUtyI_ZdxqATk3ozkL_RjcXeAXbu9GxYsOkREgKA9IzYM0HlOe0zfZSw0YhO77lvfl8eaY5Lu6RT-ZfPWfO_FUnjVtdGAHSvTQ/w284-h400/800px-Vintage_Potemkin.jpg" width="284" /></span></div><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; margin-bottom: 0.2in; padding: 0.02in;"></p><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; padding: 0.02in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Chatbot's answer: </span></p><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; padding: 0.02in;"><span style="font-size: large;">The motion
picture "Battleship Potemkin" holds significant
significance in Russia under the Putin regime in 2022 due to its
portrayal of revolutionary ideals and the struggle against
oppression. In a time when political opposition is heavily suppressed
and the government exercises strict control over media and
information, the film's message of rebellion and resistance resonates
with those who seek change and freedom.</span></p><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; padding: 0.02in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Furthermore,
the film's depiction of the 1905 mutiny on the <i>Potemkin </i>serves as a
reminder of the power of the people to rise up against injustice.
This message is particularly relevant in a country where corruption
and human rights violations are widespread, and where the government
often ignores the voices and needs of its citizens.</span></p><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; padding: 0.02in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Additionally,
"Battleship Potemkin" serves as a reminder of Russia's rich
cultural and artistic history, and its ability to produce powerful
and impactful works that continue to inspire and inspire generations.
In a time when the government often promotes a narrow, nationalist
narrative, the film serves as a counterpoint and a reminder of the
country's diversity and creativity.</span></p><p>
</p><p style="border: 1px solid #d9d9e3; padding: 0.02in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Overall,
"Battleship Potemkin" holds significant significance in
Russia under the Putin regime in 2022 due to its portrayal of
revolutionary ideals, its reminder of the power of the people, and
its celebration of Russia's rich cultural and artistic heritage.</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p><br /></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-73846362780149182282022-11-13T13:40:00.001-06:002022-11-13T13:40:28.078-06:00Writers' Walls<p><span style="font-size: large;">What do writers hang on their walls? Here are two items on my office wall, along a profile of our cat, who looks like he's checking for dust on the frame. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnpkyNfq9Aw/YBK2vk325yI/AAAAAAAADIE/Zz72HiiU558xwZQ3U3itCIWxMNl15bT7ACLcBGAsYHQ/s2048/IMG_7925.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1342" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jnpkyNfq9Aw/YBK2vk325yI/AAAAAAAADIE/Zz72HiiU558xwZQ3U3itCIWxMNl15bT7ACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_7925.jpg" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;">These are two of six illustrations by Paul Breeden for my first article in <i>Smithsonian Magazine</i>, <a href="http://xroads.virginia.edu/~ug02/barnes/grandcoulee/chiles.html">"Engineers Versus the Eons,"</a> March 1984. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Paul's Facebook is <a href="https://m.facebook.com/Paul.M.Breeden/">linked here</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">My article speculated on what would happen to three great American structures if civilization collapsed and they were abandoned to the ages, as the Ancient Wonders of the World were. The painting on the right depicts the South World Trade Center tower having collapsed due to rusting in the basement. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">That was based on an interview I had with Les Robertson, the WTC's chief structural engineer. He said that, assuming failure of the PATH tunnels or heat exchanger lines allowed the basement to flood with brackish water from the Hudson, those massive steel columns would rust and eventually fail. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">I explained it this way: "Rust is nature's way of returning steel to iron ore by combining it with oxygen. Oxygen is richest at the tidal zone, where water rises and falls daily."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The illustration on the left imagines a collapse of the Gateway Arch following a tornado. The Arch's engineers told me that a break would most likely happen at the 300-foot elevation, where the concrete-stiffened lower section of the structure meets the stainless-steel-only, hollow upper section. After hundreds of years of no maintenance, corrosion of the stainless steel would grow into cracks, making a weak point. </span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-44465533557203253782022-11-04T17:41:00.002-05:002022-11-04T17:41:49.587-05:00More experiments with DALL-E-2: Outpainting<p><span style="font-size: x-large;">This gives an idea of how the Outpainting tool can add a lot to the AI's initial square image. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBzIImVE86-kKA3ymxmHRtrGDlMTmHWePBaml1cbLU1eqjDPeZxwIwaJ6IeqPFKIXp-N5ZuKR6Z5JVZf5B5J5byJknSsU3Y8rrDjlcbA5Z4ZV443Pj_x4IRbzuSXfmQC-4k0i-8sikUew0Ie4LTrOOZX7-2f81gIcIZPwcb0N2OwPxqMT_Vp-CcROKqw/s2368/underground%20repair%20shop.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="2368" height="173" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBzIImVE86-kKA3ymxmHRtrGDlMTmHWePBaml1cbLU1eqjDPeZxwIwaJ6IeqPFKIXp-N5ZuKR6Z5JVZf5B5J5byJknSsU3Y8rrDjlcbA5Z4ZV443Pj_x4IRbzuSXfmQC-4k0i-8sikUew0Ie4LTrOOZX7-2f81gIcIZPwcb0N2OwPxqMT_Vp-CcROKqw/w400-h173/underground%20repair%20shop.png" width="400" /></a></div><div><br /></div><span style="font-size: x-large;">The original, in the center, was from my prompt asking for an underground spaceship-repair station. </span><div><span style="font-size: x-large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: x-large;">It's important to update the description in the prompt line when asking DALL-E for side images -- you want something that's related to the initial image, but different enough to be interesting. </span><br /><p><br /></p></div>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-53297568207066928652022-10-25T16:46:00.000-05:002022-10-25T16:46:46.141-05:00Old Meets New: Feeding ViaVoice speech-to-text into DALL-E-2<p><span style="font-size: large;">Circa 1999, when our boys were in school, we discovered that the iMac could turn speech into text. And the achievement was amazing, in a primitive sort of way. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IMac" target="_blank">iMac</a> was a sluggish computer by today's standards, and IBM's ViaVoice program was freestanding, using only the algorithms stored on floppy disks, with no access to online algorithms.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">We took turns reading aloud sections from <i>The Three Musketeers</i>, <i>Tom Swift</i>, and <i>The Boxcar Children</i> to see what would happen. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">ViaVoice made a heroic effort. A <a href="https://www.ardent-tool.com/sound/ENUS294-700.pdf" target="_blank">1994 IBM factsheet</a> claimed its software could render speech with complete accuracy. Well, no. It did turn out authentic words, and sometimes the sentences were grammatically correct, but the meaning rarely carried through.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Fed a line about somebody liking to eat ice cream, ViaVoice returned with "<i>Islam is a beautiful blue dream.</i>"</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">We liked that phrase, and lately I fed it into <a href="https://openai.com/dall-e-2/" target="_blank">DALL-E-2</a>. Here's the result of the computers' unlikely partnership:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpt9NzIQH0MuaEVw-z3pZl6c4b9gxBMuyGkeoghK7Mi-YAmhDb4msRLEc5ozBG1g3-9RIyT1wTAGZO6Y4WitvVGaPdNApeC5sCYo4-4y8Gn2ThZD3wzeFo4a0-EwAKVoacA8jLDCZFDfRDzv9w0GiAdwjVmtFMXBv2Shfh7yX0TUdmqc4rhLDe7DGd2w/s1024/blue%20dream2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpt9NzIQH0MuaEVw-z3pZl6c4b9gxBMuyGkeoghK7Mi-YAmhDb4msRLEc5ozBG1g3-9RIyT1wTAGZO6Y4WitvVGaPdNApeC5sCYo4-4y8Gn2ThZD3wzeFo4a0-EwAKVoacA8jLDCZFDfRDzv9w0GiAdwjVmtFMXBv2Shfh7yX0TUdmqc4rhLDe7DGd2w/s320/blue%20dream2.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><br /></span><p></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-70751637559196419812022-10-15T09:42:00.001-05:002022-10-15T09:42:31.127-05:00DALL-E-2: Weird and somewhat wonderful<p><span style="font-size: large;">Some thoughts on the AI image generator <a href="https://openai.com/dall-e-2/">DALL-E-2</a> ... While not a substitute for a professional artist, it's good for working out ideas, and for illustrating books for one's grandkids. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Results were the most interesting when it struggled with my text prompt. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">When I asked for a giant mech embracing the Statue of Liberty, it substituted the mech for Lady Liberty instead:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGlym1XfEe3Ihh8SowD324W4bBJz9TkDlQiBUndqT8dT-eR-TWjzkZbCXFIwP3i2yuYjH9kQ1h3eFk91WOKDS0nqMvRgwuqXs-aRixfJzLeXv9RAghoTbiNQsbezFUNCqrFQF-FPhz4M-_-hIa3HhhJYkbKp59g94cIkgK8FKuF6jbAnL-LCf1zfYS9g/s1280/statue%20of%20liberty%20mech.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiGlym1XfEe3Ihh8SowD324W4bBJz9TkDlQiBUndqT8dT-eR-TWjzkZbCXFIwP3i2yuYjH9kQ1h3eFk91WOKDS0nqMvRgwuqXs-aRixfJzLeXv9RAghoTbiNQsbezFUNCqrFQF-FPhz4M-_-hIa3HhhJYkbKp59g94cIkgK8FKuF6jbAnL-LCf1zfYS9g/w400-h400/statue%20of%20liberty%20mech.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;">It likes to make sunbeams, even when I didn't ask for them, as when rendering a mech in the harbor:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzx8l5s6YgwB-n1evNmFs9tJdb4bVI-J9RdKE4hveq38UkeOoS0iQ5qq4pES-JfV9Xw502WYm1CV7TXFBC3atcrEk3xVbWErVg9YWYDwBiuyoA64Sv4VrVuW2fhNHAhPxScl_LEoadBFYd9vu1wiGF2oT_woqpk16z83C9iSNqc8wLGzV7PzjWEAhkQ/s1280/sunbeam%20mech.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjzzx8l5s6YgwB-n1evNmFs9tJdb4bVI-J9RdKE4hveq38UkeOoS0iQ5qq4pES-JfV9Xw502WYm1CV7TXFBC3atcrEk3xVbWErVg9YWYDwBiuyoA64Sv4VrVuW2fhNHAhPxScl_LEoadBFYd9vu1wiGF2oT_woqpk16z83C9iSNqc8wLGzV7PzjWEAhkQ/w400-h400/sunbeam%20mech.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;">When I asked for a mech in the pose of <i>The Thinker</i>, it plugged in a despairing superhero guy. Was it thinking of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozymandias" target="_blank">Ozymandias</a>?</span></p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDn5blP8Q73g_lJY171Q2DAJnw6cjNA03O9ChFroxxBuGkT9XOKC0gLQtT392o7epLcsXJSBRtTWDvScQGRRzjk8fO-SdlNQTxUirOV8o7b56Z_Yb_4b5QsK-lVHPHjaP-2fniE3xkcz8TrL9vVY4y6t-zQCoKvh7sxFlPR1hxD6WYFuyXE8Wwh8CMw/s1280/thinker%20mech.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="1280" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPDn5blP8Q73g_lJY171Q2DAJnw6cjNA03O9ChFroxxBuGkT9XOKC0gLQtT392o7epLcsXJSBRtTWDvScQGRRzjk8fO-SdlNQTxUirOV8o7b56Z_Yb_4b5QsK-lVHPHjaP-2fniE3xkcz8TrL9vVY4y6t-zQCoKvh7sxFlPR1hxD6WYFuyXE8Wwh8CMw/w400-h400/thinker%20mech.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">When I asked for a city park in the evening, it came up with a statue of a floppy sea creature, and cut off the bottom third of the image:</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFCpBqvusnvDhFIFQIVMmkLkj_nEy0OZxzGOhA_kztqpT-2ZxfJ6EdDZ2tQht-4pot53HSniRnpA-puQs6U9k0WuQ7Db4FFycVBVs2raXVtP6imhgwAwADM-Hvj0MYmmIODJO9r_S-CED4LoQyFwUv4UvBI7oseP2DRW45yeKM-nscvujoIXJJoV1SFQ/s1024/city%20park.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFCpBqvusnvDhFIFQIVMmkLkj_nEy0OZxzGOhA_kztqpT-2ZxfJ6EdDZ2tQht-4pot53HSniRnpA-puQs6U9k0WuQ7Db4FFycVBVs2raXVtP6imhgwAwADM-Hvj0MYmmIODJO9r_S-CED4LoQyFwUv4UvBI7oseP2DRW45yeKM-nscvujoIXJJoV1SFQ/w400-h400/city%20park.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;">This eerie result after asking for a whale pulling a boat under a full moon:</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4cha4ESlo-yOxiqNxdDbr3GtAlQWhWtqB3hsGcyeGDDlShaqtD32CVAkfQSRQSWORFEif3E55swcXQJ0h3yHjHAdrZiAQIhZW-QyAcBdOts4TQi--PTPjoR8hSb1DvRB6sAJWAk11-5hJlFdpg9J9KfLsmrQsF5piFpS2XzuaKP7pxnEOwN8eKDIDAg/s1024/Whale%20and%20moon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1024" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4cha4ESlo-yOxiqNxdDbr3GtAlQWhWtqB3hsGcyeGDDlShaqtD32CVAkfQSRQSWORFEif3E55swcXQJ0h3yHjHAdrZiAQIhZW-QyAcBdOts4TQi--PTPjoR8hSb1DvRB6sAJWAk11-5hJlFdpg9J9KfLsmrQsF5piFpS2XzuaKP7pxnEOwN8eKDIDAg/w400-h400/Whale%20and%20moon.png" width="400" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /><span>More to come!</span></span><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p><br /></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-87191855742140919432022-03-01T16:55:00.001-06:002022-03-01T16:55:47.703-06:00Novels Written by Experts: Reviewing The Ransom Drop<p><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Finished a fascinating novel by Rob Phayre, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Ransom-Drop-Response-Files/dp/B096TJP6KY" target="_blank"><i>The Ransom Drop</i></a>, narrated on Audible. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41NFsHchCeL._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="333" height="320" src="https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41NFsHchCeL._SX331_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="214" /></span></a></div><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-size: large;">I'm not sure there's an elite category for "procedural" thrillers written by expert practitioners. If so, <i>Ransom Drop</i> would fit in that category. Author Phayre was a <a href="https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/q-a-with-rob-phayre-author-of-the-ransom-drop" target="_blank">lead consultant</a> in arranging for thirty ransom deliveries in and around Somalia. </span><p></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">The novel narrates the seizure of <i>Hibernia III</i>, a supertanker chartered to carry gasoline and other petroleum products to Mombasa, Kenya. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Ransom Drop</i>, unlike the typical thriller that paints antagonists in simple tones of evil, offers a close view of life in the Somali beachfront village that serves as the pirates' base. Phayre manages to get the reader to regard them with some empathy, while also making it clear that piracy poses great danger to people and the ocean environment. Even if nobody is killed in the process, it corrupts the economy, wastes resources, and traumatizes the hostages. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Unlike the authors of thrillers who work mainly from news articles or their imagination, and would quickly pass over how an emergency response team acquires cash, equipment, and weapons, <i>Ransom Drop</i> walks the reader through every detail. For example: assembling a pallet-load of fresh currency and shifting it from a bank in Athens to a bizjet at the city airport takes days of paperwork and the efforts of many people, including a "cash in transit" firm that is bonded and insured to move such sums a few miles here or there. We learn about the precautions the shipowner's team takes to see that the pirates fulfill their part of the deal: freeing hostages, ship, and cargo. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">We see into the psychological tactics that negotiators use to move the dealings forward while not giving up too much. All this is done under the eyes of a lawyer for the shipowner's insurance firm. We can hope pirates don't take up Phayre's book -- they'd probably learn some things. </span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">While very little is left out of the process, Phayre does mention without elaborating that the families of the hostages, if they take advantage of press coverage, can interfere with the steps being taken by shipowner, response team, and insurance company. Families and reporters are not part of the ensemble of this book.</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 0in;"><span style="font-size: large;">Phayre does combine past and present. The narrative appears to be set partially in the present, given the references to some present-day technology. But it also reaches into the past, presenting this hijacking as the first one along the Somali coast. The pirates have to learn how to board a supertanker and subdue its crew with only three fighters; and the response team has to figure how to deliver hundreds of pounds of cash without something going wrong.</span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-83327608263540552452022-03-01T15:42:00.001-06:002022-03-01T15:42:27.374-06:00Know Your Adversary: Another Lesson from World War II<p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Sun Tzu advised leaders to know the enemy as well as they know themselves. It’s sound advice … so sound that it’s rarely taken. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Lesson from World War II: Besides <i>Mein Kampf</i>, one opportunity to see into the enemy’s goals and fears before the war was a German book called <i>Germany Prepares for War</i> (1933), laying out its propaganda case for aggression. Another harbinger of events was the German and Japanese reaction to a set of books by the American expatriate Homer Lea. </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">Two decades before World War II, Lea predicted the general outlines of the war along with weaknesses in American and British defenses. </span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://covers.openlibrary.org/b/id/5587701-L.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="322" height="320" src="https://covers.openlibrary.org/b/id/5587701-L.jpg" width="206" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-size: large;">Immediately after Pearl Harbor, American air war planners identified targets across the Reich, using documents drawn up to support industrial loans. The British used their own research efforts when organizing hundreds of deception operations. These shielded Allied efforts, wasted the enemy’s effort, and exploited weaknesses among the Axis. One of the most interesting was a plan dubbed “Headache for Der Fuerher,” which used faked communications to force the recall of a highly effective commander of a Panzer division in North Africa. The British did this by making the Gestapo believe that a disgraced German officer was sending secret, conspiratorial messages to the commander the British had targeted for removal. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">Fortunately for people today who take Sun Tzu’s advice seriously, adversaries still reveal their agendas in books, articles, or speeches. Often these are written early in their careers, before they gain power. Or they are written by others. Jihadists swear by Sayyid Qutb’s <i>Signposts </i>and Abdel Salam Faraq’s <i>Neglected Duty</i>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Those who wonder about Vladimir Putin’s plans should read his biography of 2000, </span><i style="font-family: inherit;">Ot Pervogo Litsa: Razgovory s Vladimirom Putinym</i><span style="font-family: inherit;"> (“From the First Person, Vladimir Putin”). And even before that book and before taking power, back in graduate school, Putin wrote that he wanted to build a new empire founded on controlling access to energy, with a strong authoritarian figure at the center. The Caucasus is an energy corridor (what World War II theorists in logistic science called a “center of gravity”) and therefore is critical to that plan. To put a measure on Putin’s ambition, think of Peter the Great. His biography describes the significance of the Great Patriotic War in his family background, and his love of martial arts training (called sambo). </span></span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-49579555192281627152021-08-09T08:13:00.000-05:002021-08-09T08:13:17.597-05:00"One Thing:" Remembering keen insights<p><span style="font-size: large;"> By "One Thing," I mean a statement you heard that sticks in your mind .. an observation that lasts for years! It could be advice a person had about living, or an insight from their work experience. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">My dad was a construction-machinery dealer so he did a lot of dickering on equipment transactions. I remember this advice: “If you’re not willing to walk away when someone makes an offer, you can’t negotiate!”</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Here are some I've collected over the years from my interviews. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"> =====</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On helicopter cross-country travel: “I don’t do unplanned back-lot landings because I don’t know the municipal attitude. They all have to have a say in helicopter landings. You’re walking into trouble to do that kind of thing.” <i>Actor and helicopter pilot Harrison Ford</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On tall-tower work: “Sometimes you can see waves coming at you in the cloud banks. There's a certain thrill to it, but you have to appreciate that you can die. I remember a foreman asking me, 'Are you scared about this?' I said, `Yep!' And he said, `Good! That'll keep you alive. If you stop being scared, you're in trouble." <i>Nate McIlhaney, steeplejack </i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">“They say you can teach a monkey to fly, but to know the systems is very important. If you know what the aircraft will do in all circumstances you can save yourself.” <i>Alaskan helicopter bush pilot Mel Campbell</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On the World War 2 shipbuilding miracle: "One thing we did to make the Kaiser shipbuilding yards succeed was to send out expediters across the country. These were men who located and cleared up logjams that blocked supplies or equipment we’d ordered and weren’t getting. There were just two rules: no rough stuff, and never give up." <i>Clay Bedford, Henry Kaiser's key man in the WWII shipbuilding effort</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On leadership: “You have to know where the decisive point is. That's where a leader is supposed to be.” <i>John Novomesky of IBM, on his West Point training</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On coping with first-hand disaster: “The things I saw inside the wreckage could be called horrifying – what happened to the people caught inside. But it didn't bother me and it still doesn't. To me, those bodies were husks. Their spirits had left.” <i>Greg Gothard of The Washington Group, on his work in body recovery at the collapsed Marriott World Trade Center Hotel.</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On astronauts and deep-space exploration: “You can automate the piloting really well, such as for landing. That you can do. The real question is the on-site judgment, to sense the situation and make rational judgments. Man’s unique ability is to assimilate data and make decisions, not to be an expensive replacement for robots.” <i>Ed Gibson, who in 1973-1974 flew on the third mission to Skylab</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On backcountry travel: “I use the four-wheel drive to get out of trouble, not into it.” <i>Phil Thomas of Gerlach, Nevada, on crossing the Black Rock desert in his pickup “Grapes of Wrath”</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On tunnel work: "It can be dangerous enough, so we work together. It's not the wild rushing about that you might see other places. We call that highballing, when you rush too much." <i>Charlie McWilliams on sandhog work in the deep tunnels of New York City</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On oil exploration: "Just pretend you're going to Las Vegas. If you've got money you can afford to lose, fine, but don't take the kids' savings." <i>Danny Biggs, oilfield superintendent</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On the long-term life of buildings: “The idea of a 50- or 100-year life span for buildings is patently ridiculous. There's no structural reason not to go on and on. The effective life span is completely dependent on those who maintain them. Properly maintained, a building is ageless." <i>Structural engineer Leslie Robertson, chief engineer for the World Trade Center towers</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On persistence: “There ain't no hold that can't be broke.” <i>Major General Robert Littlejohn, before tackling the war-surplus problem that remained after WWII</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On training for emergencies: “We want to avoid chaotic responses. Two or three seconds of panic can kill, but one or two seconds of thinking can save you.” <i>Chris Judah, executive director at Survival Systems, which teaches how to escape from crashed and sinking aircraft</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On unpublicized Cold War plans: “You didn't want to have the fireball touch the ground. But there might be decisions to make, say if you had a lot of Russian bombers coming in, not just a couple. You might say 'To hell with it' and accept some fallout. That's if you knew absolutely it was Russians and they had 25 megatons on board.” <i>Frank Evans, former Nike base executive officer, on the authority that Army antiaircraft batteries had in the 1960s to launch nuclear-tipped missiles for detonation at low level over American cities</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">On trying to see orbital hazards from a space station: “We always looked outside [during the close passes] to spot oncoming objects and it was inevitably futile. Imagine trying to see a small dot ten kilometers away over your left shoulder, and a second later it's right next to you, and another second later it's ten kilometers over your right shoulder." <i>Astronaut Michael Foale on trying to spot orbiting objects while on station Mir</i></span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-91197355475016089712021-03-27T20:25:00.000-05:002021-03-27T20:25:08.198-05:00Ever Given: Cork in a Bottleneck<p><span style="font-size: large;">Observations on the <i>Ever Given</i>, in FAQ style.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Is the ship still stuck?</b> As of almost midnight local time, March 27, it was. There's some hope, perhaps exaggerated, of it being freed tomorrow. Here's a link to <a href="https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5630138/mmsi:353136000/imo:9811000/vessel:EVER_GIVEN">Marine Traffic</a>, giving its status. Scroll down to the map labeled "show live traffic."</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>How big is the ship?</b> 1,312 feet long and 192 feet wide. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>How much does it weigh? </b>Ship tonnage is measured several ways. Deadweight tonnage, or DWT, is how much a ship can carry to its maximum draft, meaning cargo, fuel and supplies. <i>Ever Given's</i> DWT is about 199,000 tons. The other important figure is “lightweight tonnage,” and it's the mass of the hull and structure before it left the shipyard, and without fuel, water or supplies. Putting deadweight and lightweight tonnage together, the total weight of <i>Ever Given</i> could be 240,000 tons. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span><b>Why did it happen?</b> No official word, but after initial blame pointed to high winds and a sandstorm, now some reports suggest <a href="https://lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/LL1136250/Questions-raised-over-cause-of-Ever-Given-grounding">human error may have figured into it</a>. </span>At the time (7:40 local on March 23) there were 19 other ships in a northbound convoy. As far as I know none of the others went aground. Most of the ships were astern of <i>Ever Given</i>. (Photo, Copernicus Sentinel, from Wikimedia)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/15/Container_Ship_'Ever_Given'_stuck_in_the_Suez_Canal%2C_Egypt_-_March_24th%2C_2021_cropped.jpg/1024px-Container_Ship_'Ever_Given'_stuck_in_the_Suez_Canal%2C_Egypt_-_March_24th%2C_2021_cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="531" data-original-width="800" height="266" src="https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/15/Container_Ship_'Ever_Given'_stuck_in_the_Suez_Canal%2C_Egypt_-_March_24th%2C_2021_cropped.jpg/1024px-Container_Ship_'Ever_Given'_stuck_in_the_Suez_Canal%2C_Egypt_-_March_24th%2C_2021_cropped.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Is there a detour at this point? </b> No. The canal does have a smaller channels that could be used as a bypass, but there's no such bypass where <i>Ever Given</i> got stuck. There must have been some close calls, with those trailing ships barely able to stop in time. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Photos don't make the <i>Ever Given</i>'s problem look all that serious. Why can't it be simply pulled backwards at an angle, to set it straight with the canal? </b>This seems like a very reasonable question! But lots of tugs have tried that already, and if it were simply a matter of a bigger pull, then strand jacks deeply fastened to the shore could provide thousands of tons of pull. Salvors call that arrangement of winches and deadman anchors "beach tackle." See my blog post about the <a href="http://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/2013/04/strand-jacks-pulling-for-you_24.html">awesome power of strand jacks</a>. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">But the situation here is not that simple: when a fully loaded ship has a big portion of its tonnage resting on land, and that's the <i>Ever Given</i>, then simply adding more winches risks tearing the ship apart. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">Consider how badly the ship is stuck. From photos, it may appear that only the ends are stuck. The turquoise-blue surface of the canal makes it look like the canal has the cross section of a swimming pool; it looks deep all the way across. (Photo, <i>Container News</i>)</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://container-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Ever-Given-In-Suez-Grounded.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="457" data-original-width="800" height="229" src="https://container-news.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Ever-Given-In-Suez-Grounded.jpg" width="400" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;">But in fact it's a sand and dirt trench with a very flat profile. Only the middle third of the canal is deep enough for a giant boxship like <i>Ever Given</i>. When it turned the wrong way and headed for the bank, the ship had so much momentum it ran itself up a gentle slope of mud, digging a furrow perhaps three hundred feet long and raising the forward section ten or more feet higher than the stern. </span></p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: large;">The stern slewed sideways so it's probably not as hard up as the other end, but the important thing to salvors is that the ship is sitting on the ground in the bow and stern, while the midships part is floating. So whenever the tide is low (and it varies by about five feet) the middle of the ship wants to sag. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>What about dredging? </b>Salvage expert <a href="https://gcaptain.com/salvage-master-nick-sloane-ever-given-interview/">Nick Sloane</a> says a very thoughtful dredging approach, along with removing some weight from the midships by pumping out tanks there, looks like the best bet. The Suez authorities certainly hoped dredging would solve the problem, because they started dredging even before the owner signed Lloyd's Open Form and hired a salvor. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Is there any risk with dredging?</b> Yes. Salvors want to study the ship's loading and hull in detail, and the seabed profile, before taking action. I'm guessing that one risk is this: if dredging were to take the seemingly obvious choice and concentrate on removing the mud nearest the middle of the ship, then working toward the ends, then the sagging problem gets worse since the middle portion is going to be less supported than it was on the first day.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Is the ship damaged? </b>There is flooding in the bow thruster room, but that may not be too big a problem. Some damage was to be expected because the bow crashed into a rock barrier. I wouldn't be surprised if the stern, the rudder and screws in particular, sustained damage from the sideways slide into the mud. A big worry would be cracks appearing in the lower parts of the middle part of the hull, then lengthening.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Can the ship be lightened by removing the containers? </b>The ones in the middle are the priority but this would be a last resort and very slow, whether done by the world's most powerful helicopters or very large floating cranes, one on each side. Such cranes would have to be more than two hundred feet high and long enough to reach the middle stacks of containers, which are a hundred feet from the sides. I haven't seen much information on the floating-crane option yet. </span></p><div><br /></div>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-36166178894625892702021-01-11T16:44:00.000-06:002021-01-11T16:44:30.226-06:00Favorite Films<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My Disaster-Wise blog is now ten years old, with a few hundred posts and about a third of a million views along the way. I never really introduced myself, so how about this: a list of movies I'd recommend to a friend. This isn't a list of movies that all smart people are supposed to love, like <i>Citizen Kane</i>: these are ones that resonated with me over the years.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I'm sure there are lots of great movies that I haven't seen yet, so the adventure continues. Also, I included one <i>Outer Limits</i> episode at the end. Comments?</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1019441-sorcerer">Sorcerer </a> (1977) - a remake of <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wages_of_fear">The Wages of Fear</a> (1953, also very good). Amazing, gripping movie. Once past the improbable premise (that an urgent delivery of dynamite to an oil-well fire would go by truck over bad roads rather than by aircraft) the movie never falters. The effects are stunning. The depiction of <a href="http://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/2010/09/explosives-as-movie-star-10th.html">nitroglycerin </a>is pretty accurate, such as its tendency to sweat out of the clay filling of aging dynamite sticks. </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fQqNj4OXL7Q/X_zPIGL_GVI/AAAAAAAADHQ/wF81FLsB_qgtrQi1lXnyd2ZMfQE0XyTZgCLcBGAsYHQ/s305/sorcerer.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="305" data-original-width="206" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fQqNj4OXL7Q/X_zPIGL_GVI/AAAAAAAADHQ/wF81FLsB_qgtrQi1lXnyd2ZMfQE0XyTZgCLcBGAsYHQ/s0/sorcerer.jpg" /></span></a></div><p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_dam_busters" style="font-family: arial;">The Dam Busters</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> (1955) - Very hard to find now but worth chasing. The story of the RAF squadron ordered to destroy three dams on the Ruhr River drainage, using unconventional weapons. Quite accurate to the after-action reports, and it doesn't hold back from the terrible cost of such missions. It was one of George Lucas's inspirations when crafting Star Wars. </span></span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">The rest of my picks, in no particular order:</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_dam_busters">Terminator 2</a> (1991) </span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/das_boot">Das Boot</a> (1981)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1007555-flight_of_the_phoenix">Flight of the Phoenix</a> (1965; the original)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/best_years_of_our_lives">The Best Years of Our Lives</a> (1946)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/groundhog_day">Groundhog Day</a> (1993)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1013775-metropolis">Metropolis </a>(1927)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/blade_runner">Blade Runner</a> (1982)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/signs">Signs </a>(2002)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/empire_of_the_sun">Empire of the Sun</a> (1987)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/my_neighbor_totoro">My Neighbor Totoro</a> (1988)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/abyss">The Abyss</a> (1989)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/steamboat_bill_jr">Steamboat Bill Jr</a> (1928)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/man_who_shot_liberty_valance">The Man Who Shot Liberty Valance</a> (1962)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/searchers">The Searchers</a> (1956)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/2001_a_space_odyssey">2001: A Space Odyssey</a> (1968)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_lord_of_the_rings_the_two_towers">The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers</a> (2002)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/to_kill_a_mockingbird">To Kill a Mockingbird</a> (1962)</span></p><p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/no_highway_in_the_sky">No Highway in the Sky</a> (1951)</span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i style="font-family: arial;">Outer Limits</i><span style="font-family: arial;"> episode - </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_with_a_Glass_Hand" style="font-family: arial;">"Demon with a Glass Hand"</a><span style="font-family: arial;"> (1964)</span></span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-45605451264735294652021-01-09T15:21:00.001-06:002021-01-10T13:59:01.265-06:00Those "nuclear codes" that travel with the President<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">I've seen <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/01/08/pelosi-trump-take-away-nuclear-codes-456529">several articles</a> lately about distancing the President from the National Command Authority (NCA), the rather short decision chain that authorizes nuclear war. Some writers say the President could be blocked if the circumstances justified, while others say the process allows no interference, leaving only the duty to carry out his lawful orders once valid identification is established.</span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">In 2017 in connection with research on the history of DEFCON alerts, I had a lengthy discussion about this with Bruce Blair, who died in 2020. Bruce was a former Minuteman ICBM launch officer and later the <a href="https://www.thesimonsfoundation.ca/highlights/dr-bruce-g-blair">co-founder of Global Zero</a>. He was an authoritative, patient, super-helpful, on-the-record source for national defense correspondents. He is greatly missed. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">(When I was interviewing him later about shortcuts in the nuclear enterprise pre-1973, he directed me to declassified Air Force reports that were, to say the least, disconcerting. If there's interest I'll blog on that.)</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Back to the National Command Authority, NCA. Bruce was quite firm about the <a href="https://apnews.com/article/4b04d15c1cf345d89de50dd39e98d5f2">unforgiving process</a>, which is built for speed in response to strategic attack, rather than reflection. He said that despite some accounts to the contrary, the Secretary of Defense plays no formal role in the NCA strike-decision-making process and, for example, could not hold things up by requesting additional identification. The SecDef would likely be part of the discussions, if available at the Pentagon's war room on short notice, but that's not the same as being in the chain of command.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Here’s how it works in the main case: assume the President is in his motorcade and sitting next to the officer with the satchel, aka Football. </span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial;">The President gets a call on the satchel via the National Military Command System and is connected with an Air Force general on duty at Offutt AFB and the War Room at the Pentagon, the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Military_Command_Center">National Military Command Center</a> (NMCC). </span></span><span style="font-family: arial;">The President and his civilian and military advisers quickly discuss the threat and possible responses. The President is already scanning the options in a briefing book kept inside the satchel. </span><span style="font-family: arial;">The President gets a challenge question and responds by reaching into his pocket for the foil-wrapped packet he carries and reading a code string from a 3x5 card. (That packet is often called the Biscuit because when sealed, it resembles a package of English cookies.) </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;">If the President issues a nuclear strike order then the rest of the job -- the issuance of Emergency War Orders to the Navy and Air Force, retargeting, code verification, and weapons release -- proceeds without the need for further direction from the President. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What’s more, the National Military Command Center has the authority to carry out later strikes, without additional direction or authorization from the President.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But other cases of how the President and NMCC might interact in a crisis won't be so streamlined.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What if the Pentagon sees an emergency and cannot reach the President through the satchel or any other means? It will contact the VP, who has his or her own biscuit and can act as backup. But if the VP believes the President is just out of touch, he or she is likely to look for the President before acting.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What if the satchel and his military aide aren’t near to hand, due to some mishap? I believe it’s likely the President could use any phone, preferably a secure one. He would tear open the biscuit, call the NMCC and open discussions. I can guess that he’d have to answer challenges in a manner that's memorized, not written down, to block the possibility that someone else had gotten hold of the Biscuit.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">What is a lawful order from the President? The Cold War plans assumed that the discussions would begin only after word from the NMCC to the President that “enemy strategic missiles are on the way from country X.” Because Cold War scenarios presumed the US would have to react in under a half hour, discussions would be short and, assuming the warning information was confirmed, no one on the line would be arguing about the lawfulness of a response. </span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">But what if the President, rather than the NMCC, makes the first call out of the clear blue and says he wants to issue a nuclear strike order? And what if the NMCC believes the crisis identified by the President (say one in which he'd like to take out a terrorist camp in some other country) doesn't need a strike on a very short timeline and would cause heavy casualties in a noncombatant nation?</span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">My guess is that if the President initiated the conversation rather than the Pentagon, and if the Pentagon itself had registered no imminent threat, the questions from the Pentagon to the President about lawfulness would, or should, be much more probing than if the Pentagon itself had first raised the alert. These questions might well take more than a half hour. It's not that the Pentagon is refusing a lawful order; it's trying diligently to determine if the President has lawfully justified them to issue an Emergency War Order to the nuclear forces: It would be reasonable to take time to reflect because once launched, our missiles cannot be recalled or destroyed in flight. I'm not saying this discussion would be easy or obvious: for military personnel to disobey the President, under the Code of Uniform Military Justice his command would have to be <a href="https://www.brookings.edu/research/nuclear-command-and-control/">manifestly or patently illegal</a>. if they blocked him, they'd be subject to court martial. <i>But remember that the NMCC's commanding officers actually open the gates of nuclear hell, not the President and his satchel. </i></span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">There are more subtleties in the decision process, and not all these are well publicized. One that Bruce mentioned is this: if the President were to draw up his own plan and order a land-based ICBM strike on North Korea, the military would refuse since those missiles would have to pass over Russia and China and the risk of an accidental war would be too high. The Pentagon would insist on some other delivery. This example is perhaps a small thing but indicates to me that the NMCC's role in nuclear strikes is not that of an automaton.</span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><br /></span></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">On balance I think the risk of an unhinged President starting a nuclear war on his own are low, assuming the NMCC is willing to think critically about whether a strike order is unlawful.</span></span></p><p class="p2" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; min-height: 20.3px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;"><span class="s2"></span><br /></span></p><p class="p3" style="font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; margin: 0px; text-size-adjust: auto;"><span class="s2"><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">A more worrisome prospect is a nuclear detonation in the homeland from treasonous insiders in the military. </span></span></p><div><span class="s2"><br /></span></div>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-87204617334170599482020-12-14T17:10:00.001-06:002020-12-14T17:10:48.621-06:00"Never Despair of the Commonwealth" <p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>Excerpt from <a href="https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Jefferson/01-33-02-0346">Thomas Jefferson's letter</a> to Nathaniel Niles</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><i>March 22, 1801</i></span></p><p><span style="font-size: x-large;">"The late chapter of our history furnishes a lesson to man perfectly new. The times have been awful, but they have proved a useful truth that the good citizen must never despair of the commonwealth. How many good men abandoned the deck, & gave up the vessel as lost. It furnishes a new proof of the falsehood of Montesquieu’s doctrine that a republic can be preserved only in a small territory. The reverse is the truth. Had our territory been even a third only of what it is, we were gone. But while frenzy & delusion, like an epidemic gained certain parts, the residue remained sound & untouched, and held on till their brethren could recover from the temporary delirium...."</span></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-75358026484224183162020-10-16T17:50:00.000-05:002020-10-16T17:50:14.940-05:00John Tyler: VP, President, and Nearly a Techno-casualty<span style="font-size: large;">Thinking of the Pence/Harris debate gone by, I looked back at this 2012 NPR <a href="https://www.npr.org/2012/02/17/147046036/hail-to-the-veep-americas-executive-underdog" target="_blank">feature</a> on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vice_President_of_the_United_States">vice presidents</a>. </span><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">Not just long-forgotten, many VPs were barely known even during their terms, never called to greatness, with no discernable effect on the present day.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span>An exception is</span><span> <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/about/presidents/johntyler">John Tyler</a>, </span><span>who was William Henry Harrison's running mate and became VP in 1841. There are a lot of odd facts in his career, and I'll save the most amazing fact till the last.<br /></span><br />
</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.presidentprofiles.com/images/prh_01_img0025.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" src="http://www.presidentprofiles.com/images/prh_01_img0025.jpg" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: large;"><span><div><span><br /></span></div>Tyler took little interest in the Veep job until he received word a month after the March inauguration that Harrison had died of pneumonia. Then he rushed to Washington. </span><br />
<br />
<span>Although the Constitution as it stood in 1841 was unclear on the details of succession in the event of the President's death (some felt that the VP could be nothing more than a caretaker for the remainder of the term), Tyler announced to Congress that he was indeed the President and moved into the White House. He took a second oath of office to clinch the claim. </span><br />
<br />
<span>Congress went along with the bold move, though there was no firm legal basis for calling him "President Tyler" until the 25th Amendment passed in 1967. Some wags referred to him as His Accidency.</span><br />
<br />
<span>What's more, Tyler had no vice president at all during his term, which lasted almost four years. The Executive has been VP-less seventeen times.</span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">While in office Tyler estranged himself from his Whig Party and dropped out of the 1844 election, leaving office in March 1845. </span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;">His term could have ended a year before that. On February 28, 1844, he was enjoying a short river cruise aboard the new steam-powered frigate <i>USS Princeton</i>, along with dozens of dignitaries. The captain wanted to show off a new, powerful 12-inch cannon dubbed the Peacemaker. <a href="http://web.mit.edu/~sgtist/Public/princeton.pdf">It exploded the third time it was test-fired</a> for the VIP entourage. Tyler had been coming from below to see the cannon, and would have been in fatal range in another few seconds. As it was, the blast killed two members of his cabinet (lithograph by N. Currier)</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pfz1OmiEbR0/X4ogbv8frSI/AAAAAAAADFk/oaQXMleRCl0wo40xo47jXde8Bu61-Ol7QCLcBGAsYHQ/s898/tyler%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="582" data-original-width="898" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Pfz1OmiEbR0/X4ogbv8frSI/AAAAAAAADFk/oaQXMleRCl0wo40xo47jXde8Bu61-Ol7QCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/tyler%2B1.png" width="320" /></span></a></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><span style="font-size: large;">Tyler was a widower. At the time he was infatuated with a woman on board, Julia Gardiner, though she was 30 years younger. She fainted after hearing that her father had died in the blast, and Tyler carried her off the ship ... and into matrimony.</span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: large;"><span>Leading to the most peculiar fact: it's been 230 years from John Tyler's birth, but he has a living grandchild named <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/10/09/president-john-tylers-grandson-lyon-gardiner-tyler-jr-dies-95/5935788002/">Harrison Ruffin Tyler</a>. This seems impossible, but it's true: Tyler married a much younger woman and fathered seven children with her, and son Lyon Gardiner Tyler also had children very late in life. <br /></span><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br />
</span></div>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-20025513237611087952020-09-18T17:08:00.002-05:002020-09-18T17:08:30.862-05:00Concealed nuclear weapons: an atomic-age nightmare that's never gone away<p><span style="font-family: arial; font-size: large;">Finished another feature for <i>Air&Space/Smithsonian</i> Magazine, "Block that Bomb," online today and linked <a href="https://www.airspacemag.com/history-of-flight/atomic-enemy-gate-180975836/" target="_blank">here</a>. It describes a major, and majorly secret, effort to use disguised gamma- and neutron-detection gear at American airports and seaports to catch Soviet agents trying to smuggle nuclear weapon components into the US, perhaps concealed in diplomatic "pouches." It predated by almost two decades the well-known passenger screening that began after a string of airliner hijackings. </span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="font-family: arial;">War-gamers of the Pentagon figured that the Soviets might plant a few big ones in New York and Washington </span><span style="font-family: arial;">and set them off</span><span style="font-family: arial;"> </span><span style="font-family: arial;">moments before their bombers appeared on our radar net. Detection-equipment work started late in the Truman Administration, inspired by this Soviet test in August 1949:</span></span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://thumbs-prod.si-cdn.com/ENJlfQGI-NaKHvs5a6X5h4h8lhc=/fit-in/1072x0/https://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/8f/5e/8f5efe75-1fb2-487c-a857-0aaeb4cf2fe2/explosion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="800" height="600" src="https://thumbs-prod.si-cdn.com/ENJlfQGI-NaKHvs5a6X5h4h8lhc=/fit-in/1072x0/https://public-media.si-cdn.com/filer/8f/5e/8f5efe75-1fb2-487c-a857-0aaeb4cf2fe2/explosion.jpg" width="615" /></span></a></div><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="font-size: large;"><p>Over the decades, the main effort shifted to overseas detection work (such as the "loose nukes" problem), and away from reliance on catching all inbound weapons-grade uranium and plutonium at the US border. </p><p>I note in the article that public concern today about an adversary's concealed nuclear weapon is much less than in the Fifties (which saw a string of potboiler thrillers on the topic, like <i><a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0045463/">The 49th Man</a></i>), but the risk could be higher. During the early years, if a bomb were found the only possible suspect would have been the USSR since only the US and USSR had any; and that posed a risk of an immediate retaliatory strike. </p><p>As the number of nuclear states and non-state terror groups has grown, attribution of who is behind a particular nuclear sneak attack will be much more difficult. That suggests that the risk of one country starting a war by setting off a bomb to disable the enemy's seat of government or military HQ (sometimes called a decapitation strike) is higher. </p><p>After the article I checked with friends who live in the DC area and asked what they knew about evacuation drills, and whether they had checked into how to leave the city quickly if an alert were sounded. They had some suggestions on ways to leave without getting stuck in traffic panics, as happened on 9/11 and during several false alarms later. And the city has tested mass-evacuation and nuclear-response plans over the years. If there's interest I'll post on that. </p></span></span><p></p>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-12576677391043876442020-04-08T17:48:00.002-05:002020-04-08T17:48:22.132-05:00Essayons! The reason for unity during WW2 is no mystery<span style="font-size: large;">Writers have been calling for World War II-style unity lately, but seem puzzled: how did Americans achieve the apparent, single-minded unity back then? </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">It took more than fear of defeat. Mostly it was fear for the well-being of one's relatives and friends. In that long-ago war, men were drafted for the duration. </span><span style="font-size: large;">Against great odds, Congress approved a draft bill well before America’s homeland was threatened; the main reason was attacks on US shipping and the fall of France and Belgium in May 1940. By 1943 the U.S. had exhausted the pool of young unmarried men and was forced to reach for younger and older cohorts. A rule evolved: “Do War Work or Fight.” The US pulled 16 million men and women into the armed services, by draft and enlistment. That was one of every nine adult Americans. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">And the Army didn't stop there. If the war needed experts on something it either reached out and drafted them or forced them in as uniformed civilian members of the “Army Specialist Corps.” Those men were paid slightly more than draftees but were under military discipline. There was no premium-priced-military-contractor system to substitute for draftees and enlistees. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">That was motivating. Everyone was in the service, or working in war plants, or coping under rationing, or had a relative or friend overseas. So a common bond was forged. Consider this poster, pinned up in hundreds of war plants: “The boy in the draft army may be yours and your neighbors! The marching will be very tough if we fall down back home.” Here it is:</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--ej1h5AHrEs/Xo5Njvkz_cI/AAAAAAAAC8U/p-PyEw2sdg0ag3pgTzSFKMMn24h-nzCCwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/war%2Bwork%2Bor%2Bfight.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="381" data-original-width="227" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/--ej1h5AHrEs/Xo5Njvkz_cI/AAAAAAAAC8U/p-PyEw2sdg0ag3pgTzSFKMMn24h-nzCCwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/war%2Bwork%2Bor%2Bfight.jpg" width="190" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">That's the kind of spirit that supercharged <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/1944/03/18/the-bard-in-the-delicatessen" target="_blank">Louis G. Schwartz</a>, "Louie the Waiter," who worked at the Sixth Ave Deli in New York City. Both his sons-in-law were in the service; one had been captured by the Germans. Louie decided that every war bond sold to citizens would shorten the war, so he took up a personal crusade to sell as many as possible. He could not be persuaded otherwise. Operating out of his apartment and the delicatessen, Louie sold $30,000 worth of war bonds every week. Adjusted to 2020 money, that's equal to $420,000 now. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">That's every week. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Louie would size up a new customer at the deli and try to sell him a bond that very day, and then get him to buy another bond every payday. On every menu was this slogan: "You'll buy war bonds sooner or later, so get them today from Louie the Waiter." The deli had customers from all walks of life. Several customers bought bonds with a face value of $100,000. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">All told, according to his obituary, Louie the Waiter sold $9 million in war bonds. That went to buy 66 P-47 Thunderbolts, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1972/01/13/archives/louis-schwartz-waiter-dies-sold-9miuion-in-war-bonds.html" target="_blank">each painted with "Louie the Waiter"</a> on the nose. His customers asked for no receipt: they gave him cash or checks. Louie turned in the money at the bank or to a volunteer group, and the customer got their bonds in the mail from the U.S. Treasury later. Louie spent most of every afternoon on the phone or walking the neighborhood collecting money and visiting bond prospects. Then he worked eight hours at the deli. He paid all expenses himself. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Here's the point to take from Louie the Waiter: the secret of successful emergency mobilization is to have clear and fair government mandates that mesh with<i> well-publicized voluntary efforts that rise above the requirements.</i> Those two driving forces, one pushing and one pulling, make a very potent combination. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">If citizens can join in efforts like war bonds or victory gardens that are easily visible to anyone at the street level, the movement will spread faster. As sociologists have found, the visible actions of friends and neighbors are the most powerful way to engage an individual. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">What's it mean today? I'd guess that many of the most determined social-distancing, mask-wearing people have friends or relatives on the front lines of the COVID crisis, whether those at risk are medical staff, first responders, or clerks in essential businesses. </span>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-32330123595063556182020-04-05T13:42:00.000-05:002020-04-05T13:42:13.088-05:00Donors and Acceptors: Physical distancing lessons from the explosives industry<span style="font-size: large;">Since I'm an analogy guy the notion of masks "to protect you from me, and me from you" reminded me of what I learned about an explosives-safety principle called donors and acceptors.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">This was during a visit to the DynoNobel dynamite plant near Carthage, MO. It's what chemists call a nitrating plant, meaning that nitrogen compounds are mixed with other ingredients. The result is blended with an absorbent to fill tubes and make sticks of dynamite. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">When I visited in 2000 this was the last dynamite factory still operating in North America. </span><span style="font-size: large;">That's because </span><span style="font-size: large;">dynamite has mostly been replaced by less sensitive blasting agents relying on ammonium nitrate. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The blasting agent our crew used on a construction project in Missouri was one of those ammonium-nitrate explosives, called Tovex, a product of DuPont. It came in tubes and we used Primacord and electric caps to set it off. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The key ingredient at the Carthage plant, ethylene glycol dinitrate, is an updated version of nitroglycerin, made from glycerol and white fuming nitric acid. EGDN flows like a light vegetable oil. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Nitroglycerin will explode if shocked or overheated, and the Carthage plant was dealing with thousands of pounds in a single batch, so special precautions were in order. Before our tour, Rick Fethers, the DynoNobel safety officer who served as my escort, went over the plant map. The plant was divided into four zones and people working around the plant had to know which zone they occupied at all times. That way, after hearing a specific set of honks from the alert system, they'd know how to run from danger rather than into it. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">I asked why the buildings were so far apart. Rick explained the risk-management principle of keeping separation between "donor" and "acceptor" buildings. These are minimum distances required in case of explosion, so that one blast doesn't throw explosives or missiles into nearby storage magazines, potentially triggering a plantwide chain reaction. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Here's a table from the 2017 "Table of Distances" guide from the Institute of Makers of Explosives. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h0Eak5Ptzq4/XoodJumMOAI/AAAAAAAAC7c/_97Cm13GcAAQE-Dxv0lcV8P9OhjguChGgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IME%2B2017%2Btable%2Bof%2Bdistances%2BHE%2Bdonor%2Bto%2Bblasting%2Bagent%2B47%2Bthen%2B6x%2B%252B%252B%252B.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="418" data-original-width="741" height="225" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h0Eak5Ptzq4/XoodJumMOAI/AAAAAAAAC7c/_97Cm13GcAAQE-Dxv0lcV8P9OhjguChGgCLcBGAsYHQ/s400/IME%2B2017%2Btable%2Bof%2Bdistances%2BHE%2Bdonor%2Bto%2Bblasting%2Bagent%2B47%2Bthen%2B6x%2B%252B%252B%252B.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Reading down the first column to find a quantity between four and five tons of high explosives (that's the "donor"), reading across the row shows the minimum permissible distance to a barricaded "acceptor" magazine full of blasting agent is 47 feet. And that protective barricade has to be at least twenty inches thick. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">And the publication goes on to explain that if the "acceptor" magazine of blasting agent lacks a barricade, the minimum safe distance is six times greater, or about 300 feet. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Here's a photo from a 2008 Department of Defense test at China Lake using a one-ton TNT donor charge. This was followed by a careful search for all debris, which reached out two-thirds of a mile. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-arwfeAoJP0Y/Xooi6eqOQwI/AAAAAAAAC74/gytrY2HplA4sJlai5qwUBHqwmn6j3NXcACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/china%2Blake%2Btests%2B2008.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="400" height="249" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-arwfeAoJP0Y/Xooi6eqOQwI/AAAAAAAAC74/gytrY2HplA4sJlai5qwUBHqwmn6j3NXcACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/china%2Blake%2Btests%2B2008.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">So there's the analogy from a hundred years of hard experience with explosives: </span><span style="font-size: large;">Today's anti-COVID rules about keeping a six-foot (or more!) separation and using face masks are like the regulated safe distances and barricades between explosives: precautions now can stop a chain reaction later. </span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-72504853069955032732020-03-25T16:41:00.002-05:002020-03-25T16:41:41.044-05:00Essayons! Rationing, the Unthinkable<span style="font-size: large;">Continuing a mini-series on lessons from WW2 .... Rationing is a dirty word in a consumocracy like ours. But it’s never been all that far from American practice during emergencies: In the early 1960s, cities and counties set up review panels (<a href="https://www.governing.com/topics/health-human-services/Death-Panels-Rationed-Care.html" target="_blank">aka God Panels</a>, later slammed as Death Panels in political debates over Obamacare) to decide which patients got access to the very scarce kidney dialysis machines. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Now CV-19 is at our doorsteps. Just over the horizon is some form of healthcare rationing if people refuse orders to maintain social distancing, thus causing hospitals to be swamped. In our neighborhood, stores began limiting purchases of the Big Four (wipes, alcohol, toilet paper, and paper towels) last week. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;">Side note: Even during the biggest wave of panic buying, I noticed that at least two things lingered on the shelves: bags of chickpeas and cans of split pea soup. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Lesson from the war: The first attempt at gas and tire cutbacks in World War II were voluntary measures like Sunday driving bans. They didn't work. No surprise there.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">What did work were <a href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/take-closer-look-ration-books" target="_blank">wartime coupon books</a> issued by local boards, under simple and clear rules and with help from paid staff that handled the exemption paperwork. For the most part, Americans learned to cope. One reason was a big propaganda campaign, with posters like this (Office of Price Administration):</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9vTpkf3xeL8/XnvIf93dPqI/AAAAAAAAC5k/L0v6XofrWwYKJ31svlVmHohDvnhPJbIYwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/OPA%2Bposter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="447" data-original-width="327" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9vTpkf3xeL8/XnvIf93dPqI/AAAAAAAAC5k/L0v6XofrWwYKJ31svlVmHohDvnhPJbIYwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/OPA%2Bposter.png" width="234" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">But it was never perfect! A controversial but amusing wartime <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7kxnDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT141&lpg=PT141&dq=rationing+colliers+texas+trucker+coupons&source=bl&ots=K1Q0DJukPw&sig=ACfU3U3G0Akzpp432tKB6lXt4GspbSoAGQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiQtfr-xLboAhWWHc0KHUx5ArYQ6AEwAHoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=rationing%20colliers%20texas%20trucker%20coupons&f=false" target="_blank">article in </a><i><a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=7kxnDwAAQBAJ&pg=PT141&lpg=PT141&dq=rationing+colliers+texas+trucker+coupons&source=bl&ots=K1Q0DJukPw&sig=ACfU3U3G0Akzpp432tKB6lXt4GspbSoAGQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiQtfr-xLboAhWWHc0KHUx5ArYQ6AEwAHoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=rationing%20colliers%20texas%20trucker%20coupons&f=false" target="_blank">Colliers</a> </i>described how in 1943, reporter Mike Miller figured out how to drive from Texas to Minnesota without using a single one of his own gas ration coupons. The biggest loophole for "ration chiselers," and exposed by Miller'</span><span style="font-size: large;">s article, were the unlimited coupons made available to truckers.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">When it came to keeping grocers honest about food price controls, the most effective policing was the combination of citizens who recorded infractions, and then relayed their tips to enforcement officers. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Conserving resources and preventing inflation went far beyond ration books. In the course of enforcing rules from the Office of Price Administration, federal marshals actually handcuffed and carried away the chief executive of Montgomery Ward. It meant allocating scarce raw materials between companies, stopping the sale of some goods entirely, and forcing companies to redesign stoves and refrigerators in order to save material and labor. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Outrageous! And successful. </span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-66411244023722133582020-03-21T12:43:00.000-05:002020-03-21T12:43:30.822-05:00Essayons! When the Unthinkable turned Thinkable<span style="font-size: large;">Commentator P.J. O’Rourke once wrote that giving power and money to government is like <a href="https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/P._J._O%27Rourke" target="_blank">handing over a bottle of whiskey and the car keys to a teenager</a>. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">And many Americans have shared O’Rourke’s mistrust. </span><span style="font-size: large;">Any discussion on tackling today’s problems is likely fenced in by “unthinkables” -- actions that reasonable people regard as out of bounds for the federal or state governments. If an unthinkable comes up it’s likely to provoke the immediate response, “Don’t go there!” </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Today, in terms of climate change, one political unthinkable has been a carbon tax. In the world of transit, a city ban on all personal cars. In the fight against narcotics trafficking, an unthinkable would be to decriminalize narcotics so as to cut the floor out from under the cartels and narco-states. In the military sphere, a nationwide military draft is unthinkable. In this way of thinking we're hemmed in by the impossible, on all sides.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Actually, no. Here's another lesson from World War II mobilization: In June 1940 a group of American business and political leaders sat down to put together a list of their own unthinkables. France and Belgium had just fallen to the Germans, so the status quo was beginning to look like a sure road to ruin. They came up with nineteen unthinkable things. Each marked a political line that, so they believed, Americans would never allow its leaders to stick a toenail over, whatever the justification. Here’s a partial list, recorded in a 1943 article in the <i>Harvard Business Review</i>:</span><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“Conscription for military service must not be used;”</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“Possible shortages of materials must not be discussed;”</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“Foreign service for troops is not permissible;” </span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“Rationing to consumers is unthinkable;”</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“All mandatory curtailment and limitation of industry is unthinkable;” and</span></li>
<li><span style="font-size: large;">“Close collaboration with a communistic government is unthinkable.”</span></li>
</ul>
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;">All these and many more were in place before 1944 ended. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Though the price was high, no revolution occurred; by mid-1944 a once-fearful citizenry was so certain of victory that it was planning on commuting by helicopter shortly after Tojo gave up. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">“Don’t go there”? <i>Here’s where they went:</i> income tax brackets as high as 88%, the drafting of 16 million men, an historic narrowing of the income gap between rich and poor, price controls, allocation of raw materials, renegotiation of war contracts that proved too profitable, commandeering of ships, censorship of broadcasting and movies, the shutdown of many factories making consumer goods, takeover of poorly run defense industries, 35-mph speed limits, confiscation of spare tires, and gasoline rationing. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The unthinkables spared no one; when the beloved and iconic company Colt Arms couldn’t make .50-caliber machine guns fast or cheaply enough, the government snatched its contract away and gave it to the Brits. Colt’s refusal to adapt to circumstances helps explain why it was one of the very few old-line defense contractors that managed to lose money during the boom years. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">World War II proved that even the wickedest tangle can be cut down to size. But the solution wounds and kills. It can’t be achieved with “sector neutrality.” During World War II, many small businesses had to close, and that included thousands of gas stations and other small businesses. Some cosmetic makers and horse racing tracks were wiped out. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The shortage of bearings and alloys at the approach of war shut down my grandfather Dick Chiles’s highway-equipment manufacturing business in Buckner, Missouri. It was a heartbreaking development, since it was his first business success after going broke three times during the Depression. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Tough, very tough, but there was no choice. As a <i>Detroit News </i>editorial said when switching its stance from isolationism to support for Lend-Lease, “There is no such thing as half a war.” </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">So my grandfather (a World War I tank-corps veteran) pestered his relative Harry Truman, then a U.S. Senator, to get him back in the Army; Truman pointed that Dick had lost his hand in a hunting accident and said he could not serve in uniform again. But Truman called back after two weeks with a job lined up: Dick Chiles moved to Washington and began buying up bulldozers to help rebuild the London docks.</span>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-28898682541624585392020-03-19T19:17:00.000-05:002020-03-19T19:17:44.724-05:00Essayons! More lessons from World War II mobilization<span style="font-size: large;">Here in Minnesota one of our family's favorite stops is the Corps of Engineers' Marine Museum at Canal Park in Duluth. Here's a picture from the museum grounds of the ship canal and traffic bridge:</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq_iI_hSYHg/XnQF4MZ8xzI/AAAAAAAAC4o/ckHURTUbzzIFJeRedPahpJKlxNeb4GSOgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/IMG_6461.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="960" data-original-width="1280" height="240" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Vq_iI_hSYHg/XnQF4MZ8xzI/AAAAAAAAC4o/ckHURTUbzzIFJeRedPahpJKlxNeb4GSOgCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/IMG_6461.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">A big sign hanging over the museum's entrance hall has this single, odd word:</span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k3VqZPkKG3A/XnQJfhiiSBI/AAAAAAAAC5E/4IB9yZaDJpsxjrMfcPl52W0I1QuVReZUQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/essayons%2Bsign.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="409" data-original-width="799" height="163" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-k3VqZPkKG3A/XnQJfhiiSBI/AAAAAAAAC5E/4IB9yZaDJpsxjrMfcPl52W0I1QuVReZUQCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/essayons%2Bsign.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">It's French for "let us try," and it's been the motto of the Corps since the early 1800s. I can't say I agree with everything the Corps has done over the years, but their work under difficult conditions holds some tips for new and difficult days. At its core, the Corps is a wartime organization. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Over time I've given talks, and posted here, on some lessons from World War II. It's from researching a nonfiction book proposal that, editors assured me later, had no audience: saying, there's no unity today as in the war, and no motivation to do anything but buy stuff and hang out. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Not that the current pandemic has probably altered that mindset. The crisis will pass, no doubt after many months of casualties and damage to our economy and healthcare system, and we'll eventually adapt. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">But that's a long stretch and in hopes of offering encouragement now with more accounts of how wartime workers dealt with seemingly impossible challenges, I've decided to pull out more of the dozens of lessons I gathered from studying World War II mobilization. I'm not claiming that the nearly unanimous spirit of the American home front can be duplicated. That came out of the fact that a great majority believed they had a personal stake in victory. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Rather, I'm just saying that some specific lessons from the war years still have relevance. Many techniques developed during the war (such as action learning, collapse rescue, "branches and sequels" military analysis, production expediters, and operational research) are still in active use, although their origins have been forgotten. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">One of those war lessons is the importance of long lead times, rather than assuming we can start producing something from nothing, and in a few months. </span><span style="font-size: large;">There are lots of examples, and here's one showing why decisions made well beforePearl Harbor proved crucial to the Allied war effort. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">War orders from the British for cargo ships to break the U-Boat blockade triggered a crash shipbuilding program here in December 1940, followed by a broader effort called Lend Lease that passed three months later. Because the Lend Lease bill made an exception to the Neutrality Act of 1939, the U.S. could begin providing weapons to dozens of allied countries that had exhausted all currency reserves and bankable assets by 1941. Using his fireside radio chats, FDR explained that it was like lending one’s neighbor a garden hose when his house was burning down. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">It was a masterpiece of folksy persuasion, given public resentment stirred up by isolationist, antiwar books like <i>The Case of Sergeant Grishka</i>, <i>Arms and the Man,</i> and <i>The Road to War</i>. The apparent impossibility of European peace had poisoned the politics of foreign aid up until the crucial Lend-Lease vote in Congress. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">In retrospect, Lend Lease’s most important contribution to victory was in getting America’s industrial army underway a full year before Pearl Harbor. As one Navy man said after the war, “Forget the production miracles of 1944. Everything important happened in 1940 and 1941.” The lead time before Pearl Harbor was vital when it came to making goods with unavoidably long lead times. The choke point was most severe with rolled manganese-steel alloy. As an example, 300 new Sherman tanks would not have been available to fight Rommel’s Panzers in North Africa in 1942 had not American steel mills received orders for heavy plate in late 1940.</span><br />
<br />
<br />Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7843016047022615527.post-7348438038087650712020-03-19T12:27:00.001-05:002020-03-19T12:27:42.716-05:00Mistake-Maker's Club, CV-19 edition<span style="font-size: large;">In a 2018 post, "The Lecture I Never Gave," I laid out the concept of the </span><a href="https://disaster-wise.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-lecture-i-never-gave.html" style="font-size: x-large;" target="_blank">Mistake-Maker's Club</a><span style="font-size: large;">. I chose that blog title because, at the time, I thought I wouldn't be giving any more lectures. As it turned out I've given several more disaster-prevention talks since then, with the next keynote talk postponed due to the you-know-what pandemic.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">The last couple of weeks have reminded me to remind readers of noting their mistakes right away, so as to avoid repeating them. The kind of mistakes I mean are the ones immediately obvious in retrospect. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Why the reminder? We're all stressed and for many reasons; yanked this way and that by bad news and changing directives from all directions; worried about friends and family and healthcare workers on the front lines, worried about jobs and savings ... the list goes on. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Already doctors, PAs, technicians, and nurses in the hard-hit areas are warning that they are working extremely long hours with CV-19 patients, and therefore at risk of infection all the time. We've been reading a lot about the importance of having enough ventilators in ICUs, but less has been said about the need for well rested staff, because their expertise and good judgment is essential in using such machines. Ventilators, as well as other life-sustaining machines like ECMO devices, can cause complications even in ordinary circumstances. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">My point is not to remind you of things to worry about, but just to say that the sleeplessness, fatigue, and daily distractions we're all experiencing <b><i>make mistakes more likely. </i></b> Some mistakes are silly: the other morning I found I had unknowingly added an extra belt on top of the first belt on my pants; twice I missed a routine step in the coffee-making chore and ended up with coffee grounds and hot coffee on the counter. </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">Many other mistakes might not be silly, like grabbing the wrong prescription bottle.</span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;">So ... check twice before doing something you might regret! </span><br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span>Jim Chileshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02849843735206903837noreply@blogger.com0